Location: Australia

Contact: Jack Katzfey and John McGregor

Research Question:

IPCC  climate change projections are available but there is limited ability to utilise this information on a regional scale as the information provided is too coarse. In addition, some countries do not have the ability to “downscale” this information for their own regional purposes.  This project addresses these issues through regional climate modelling over Indonesia.

What did the project do?

This project provided:

• country-scale information for Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines based on 60km downscaled results from six IPCC Fourth Assessment climate simulations 
• expert targeted training for Indonesian scientists, enabling them to run regional climate models (models which have already been provided to them by CSIRO) to supply additional climate data on a regional scale, and enabling them to build required expertise to interpret this data
• a training course to enable Indonesian scientists to identify the implications of climate scenarios and develop appropriate country-based responses including targeted responses to extreme events such as monsoons, rainfall changes, temperature changes and typhoons.
   

What will the project produce?

• Downscaled model output at 60 km resolution over Indonesia for six global climate models (GCMs) for periods: 1971-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 for the A2  emission scenario.
• Report from analysis of the downscaled model output for Indonesia, carried out in conjunction with the two visiting scientists
• Report on the final workshop

How can the project make a difference to development?

This activity will provide BMKG (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics) staff from Indonesia with datasets and skills to assess possible impacts of climate change over Indonesia.  In addition, with multiple IPCC models being downscaled, some of the uncertainty of the future climate will be captured. This study will provide regional information about climate change to assist in the decisions on how to respond to these potential changes. A final component of this study is to further train BMG staff from Indonesia in running the model and interpreting the results.  In addition, other countries (such as Philippines) have expressed interest in this project and wish to pursue a similar project and to participate in the final workshop of this project.

Project completion date - 30 June 2009

DOWNLOAD full project report [2.5mb]