Climate Adaptation Strategies for Rural Livelihoods in Indonesia

Location: Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia

Contact: James Butler

Research Question: What are different stakeholders’ perceptions of the vulnerability of rural peoples’ livelihoods to climate and other change in Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) Province, and what ‘best-bet’ climate adaptation strategies should be developed to build their resilience?

What is the project doing?

We are working with the Government of Indonesia, the NTB Provincial Climate Change Task Force and Indonesian scientists to assess the vulnerabilities of rural livelihoods to climate change in NTB, and to develop and implement strategic plans for adaptation at both provincial and local levels.

Nusa Tenggara Barat, including its major islands, Lombok and Sumbawa, is inherently vulnerable to climate change due to an already highly variable and seasonal climate. It is also one of the poorest provinces in Indonesia, and one of the least able to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

In partnership with Indonesian research institutions, we are carrying out scenario planning at the provincial and local scale with policymakers, communities and local researchers, applying down-scaled climate projections with ecosystem services modelling and adaptive capacity assessments. The approach explicitly integrates scientific knowledge with local perceptions of change and social-ecological systems through participatory planning.

By carrying out scenario planning at provincial and local community scales the project will identify differences and commonalities between stakeholders’ perceptions of appropriate adaptation strategies, including gender issues.
By combining these perspectives the project will identify ‘best bet’ strategies, and assess their costs and benefits, which are appropriate for both government and vulnerable local communities.

What will the project produce?

With the exception of Lombok, climate change projections have only been modelled at broad geographical scales in Indonesia, and are generally not sufficient to inform climate adaptation at local or regional scales. The Lombok Vulnerability Assessment, completed by WWF and GTZ in 2010, was based on limited climate projection information, and adaptation options for rural communities were not explicitly analysed.

CSIRO has developed down-scaled climate projections for Indonesia at 60 km² resolution. We are further down-scaling these projections to 8 km² resolution for NTB, and incorporating them into ecological and livelihoods modelling to assess potential climate impacts and community vulnerabilities.

In preparation for scenario planning, our research partners have collated information such as human demographics and census information, sectoral data (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, tourism), biodiversity inventories and land-use maps.

Using this information and the ecosystem services and livelihoods modelling, we are running a series of workshops to develop regional scenarios and adaptation strategies. The outputs will be:

• narratives of future scenarios for NTB livelihoods for 2030, 2060 and 2090
• quantitative and qualitative assessments of scenario outcomes for ecosystem services and livelihoods
• an assessment of ‘best-bet’ adaptation strategies at the regional and local scale, which will build on the outcomes of the Lombok Vulnerability Assessment

Working with five case-study communities, we will then apply the future scenarios at the local scale to re-assess the potential outcomes for rural livelihoods from the community perspective, and to identify their priority adaptation strategies for testing and implementation.

One key stage of the process will be to assess the adaptive capacity of policy makers and communities, including the influence of gender.

In partnership with Indonesian collaborators, we are establishing methods for assessing the impact of the project on national and NTB policy. Methods include social network analysis, most significant change and policy analysis.

How will the project make a difference to development?

Planning for adaptation at local, regional and national levels will be informed by locally-relevant climate change projections and stakeholder defined strategies.

Through the development of this project’s methodology, and the results for NTB, national and provincial institutions will be better able to prepare for the impacts of climate change and natural disasters on rural livelihoods.

NTB case study communities will also have developed and begun implementing appropriate adaptation strategies for their livelihoods in partnership with the NTB Climate Change Task Force.

Project completion date: 30 June 2013